Greater Lafayette Information Technology Society

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October 10
Bob Verplank
Computer Visions

"10 in 10"

Scott Charles of Roeing Corporation

A talk entitled 10 in 10, by Scott Charles of Roeing Corporation, their technology architect. This talk was presented to the Greater Lafayette Technology Society meeting on 18 October, 2011.

This material came from some independent research and other private sources, Dave Evans (a futurist at Cisco), IBM, Microsoft and MIT. He prefaced his remarks with a statement that if you believe everything I tell you, I have failed. He gave us the 10 technology trends that may change the world in ten years. Some of these things are way out there. All of this is subject to change if the trends change.

1. The Internet of Things

2. The Zetta Flood is coming

3. The Wisdom of the Cloud

4. The Next Net

5. The World is Flat and so is your Technology

6. The Power of Power

7. It's All About You

8. The Next Dimension

9. Another Family Tree

10. You Only Better, Self Evolution of the Species

1. The Internet of Things. 70% of all of the knowledge we now have has been developed since the Internet was born. In 1900 knowledge doubled every 50 years. It now doubles every 2.3 years. In 50 years 95% of everything we know will have been discovered in those 50 years. The 21st century will be equivalent to the Internet of Things. The 21st century will be equivalent to 20,000 years of progress at yesterday's rate or 1000 times greater than today's rate. There are several phases of the evolution of Internet, ARPANET, the information procural phase, the sharing of ideas, and the social aspects of the Internet. The Internet is global. The use of the Internet is currently doubling every 5.3 years. We now have access to every library in the world, not just a local library. 90% of the world has wireless connectivity to the Internet. We now have more connected devices than people. In 2007 there were 294 million devices shipped with Wi-Fi capability. Cisco believes that there will be so many connected devices that we will have planetary monitoring. HPCeNSE believes that there will be 1 trillion sensors hooked to the planet. There's a tree in Denmark with Facebook and Twitter accounts that has 2000 connections to the Internet. There are cows in the dairy at Fair Oaks just north of Lafayette that furnish 200 MB of information per year for each cow. They have over 12,000 cows. Nike is now producing a shoe that provides a Wi-Fi download. The applications for this are for location, movement, exercise, calorie consumption, etc. We're about to produce an inhaler, for asthmatics, that collects information on the use of the inhaler, the weather, and the pollen count, when you use it for future design of inhalers. We now have a chip that transmits data directly from the stomach with obvious scientific implications. With IVP 6 there will be a potential of 52,000 trillion trillion addresses per person. IVP 4 has over 5,000,000,000 addresses. This will continue to make available more and more data sources to the Internet. The Opportunity is to convert data into information.

2. The Zetta Flood is Coming. We have bytes, kilobytes, megabytes, gigabytes, terabytes, petabytes, exabytes, and eventually Zetta bytes. We did produce 5 EB of new information in the year 2008. That is equivalent to 1 billion DVDs per year or about equal to the last 5000 years of information. By 2015, 1 ZB of data will flow over the Internet. That is equivalent to a stack of books from the earth to the planet Pluto, 20 times. The social web is adding a lot of information to the cloud. YouTube is adding 48 hours of video upload every minute. Smart phone users are downloading 200 apps every second. By 2015, 20% of all data will be video. Cisco teleconference, transparent displays, flexible media, interactive mirrors, and virtually every surface can be used for display and flexible screens. Yesterday when we did an MRI, we made 10 slices or pictures of the object and consumed 50 MB of data. Today we are doing 2400 slices and producing 20 GB of data. Tomorrow we will be using 1024 cubed Voxel's or 1 TB of information for an MRI.

3. The Wisdom of the Cloud. By 2020, one third of all data will pass through or live on the cloud. The use of the cloud to store data is jumping at a rate of 20% per year. IT spending on the cloud will be above $1 trillion by 2014. Some new uses of the Internet to help us communicate include Google goggles which will allow you to translate a foreign menu, sign, street, or article. Watson, which recently ran and won on Jeopary against human champions, was created by a joint effort of IBM, MIT, and other forward thinkers not to play chess, but rather to emulate human thinking. Some projected uses of Watson's thinking are to improve medical patient diagnosis and to run the nation's power grid in a more efficient manner. The evolution of Watson 2 will even more closely resemble how the human brain functions. The collection of data in the cloud with the crowd produces a powerful and awesome combination of data. There are now 389,730 datasets, raw and geospatial on each individual. There are 11,019 government applications of data and 236 private applications of data per person. (Data.gov).

4. The Next Net. The data collection from people and from devices continues to proliferate. We used to have one telephone network connection with which we used to communicate. This continues to rise and we can have speeds of over 25Gb/s in homes. The future will rise to 100Gb/s over fiber optic cables. Scott says that in 2011, he counted in his house 28 always on connections to the Internet, including printers, Apple TV, iPod, Xbox, security system, and others. The current world connection is 4.3 devices per person. The future will include refrigerators, dishwashers, dryers and cars. The advances continue to occur even at faster rates. Our kids will need this even more than ourselves. The next net has already begun. With its speed, every person in China (1.3 billion) could be on the same video at the same time, every movie ever made could be downloaded in 4 minutes, and every person in the world could get on the same webex phone call. The next net will have six times more capacity, 4 times faster and 40 percent more efficiency than the current Internet. Companies with this in mind include AT&T and Motorola and are growing all the time.

5. The World is Flat and so is your Technology. We started with the Pony Express, and continued to add speed as time passes with the current trend in video. The Internet has moved to the point where it is the most powerful means of communication that has ever existed. It probably is the reason that two nations have had their leadership overthrown this year, Egypt and Libya, with information transmitted over the internet. The first tweets on the Japanese earthquake reached the United States 7 minutes earlier than the USGS posted tsunami official reports. Near Time gets closer to Real Time every day. News is produced on broadband with anyone producing and putting it on Internet TV with incredible speed. In 10 years anyone will be able to talk to anyone on any device.

6. The Power of Power. Energy demand will continue to increase throughout the world. In the next five years 500 million people will be urbanized in the world. It is estimated that we will need 10 more Saudi Arabia's in the next 10 years to provide the required power. The problem is that as we add new power production we are adding new people. The problem is not technical but a political and social one. Solar or wind energy can take care of our needs but we need to be able to collect it. Science has produced an artificial leaf which can directly produce electrical power from solar power. Other ideas for power production include splitting water into hydrogen, power-generating shoes, collecting energy from Wi-Fi, collecting energy from noise, and self powered motes. With IVP six, we will be able to have light bulbs that we can turn on and off remotely, yes even from our iPhones.

7. It's all about you. We used to be slaves to technology, now technology is starting to adapt to us. We can get image recognition applications on our smart phones, puzzle recognition and solution, facial recognition, barcode recognition, product recognition, Dragon Facebook updates, and Augmented Reality. We can have location-based AR, medical-based AR, video conference AR, and always on AR. Uses of AR include bionic glasses, and contact ARs. Kinect shop, 6th sense, and G speak all use and are based on touch technology. Soon TV will watch you. You could build a home with AR with a remote builder. We could do some of the same remote processes with medicine. The ads that you see may know you. as Amazon is doing right now. TVs will have a camera and be aware of what we are doing and based on that know what ads to run. Another application would include brain-to-brain communication and brain implants are expected to be common by 2030.

8. The Next Dimension. The next dimension applications include 3-D printing. These are already available in two flavors additive manufacturing, and subtractive manufacturing. We can make prosthetics, engine parts, complex geometry, jewelry, plastic parts, artificial skin; we can print food, skin, and cells. We can print a building model. The lowest cost of a current 3-D printer is about $1700. We can print an engine that will run. If we think about Star Trek, we can print dinner. We are becoming able to print human organ replacements.

9. Another Family Tree. We can create interactive robotic entities. These would be artificial entities that could emulate a real person, such as a virtual concierge, a banker who knows you and who recognizes your speech, knows your account, your needs, and responds accordingly. Some names for these devices currently in use include Emily and Valerie. I joked that Frontier communications is already using one of these. Robots may be sensor loaded devices connected to the Internet. There are military applications for this. We have signed on our first non-human DJ. It has its own radio show and has replaced five employees, earning $100,000 a year, saving the radio station $500,000 a year, all based on a $200 software package.

10. Self Evolution of the Species. As we collect more data we may be able to reverse cell aging. We will have technology adapt to us. A heart may soon be developed that will not fail. Artificial eyes are coming soon. We may be the last generation to know death.

This material, and its research was produced by Scott Charles, Technology Architect of the Roeing Corporation from other private sources and they may have rights to its reproduction or use.